* background
On the first of October of Trump's second term the U.S. Government entered the longest shut down in history as of writing. Congress was unable to pass a new budget continuing resolution that would allow the government to work until the end of September. The democrats refused to vote on any new CR that wouldn't either preserve tax credits and ACA coverage for US citizens, which was threatened by every CR proposed by the GOP.
These demands only preserved the status quo. Cutting the two features was on the part of the Republicans to tidy up the deficit they built up with Trump's named Big Beautiful Bill. Which had cut revenues with an excessive amount of tax cuts.
In the breadth of the shutdown two major demographics were hurt. First dependents on Federal subsidies, notably SNAP (food stamps) recipients who relied on it to feed themselves and their families. Secondly federal worker, who did not receive pay throughout the shut down. Additionally Trump took advantage of the shut down to lay off 211,000 federal workers.
I have eagerly followed coverage from both halves of reporters and commentators, and I wanted to give an analysis on this topic. The narrative surrounding which I feel has become intrusively muddied by partisan narratives. In this piece I would like to analyze a lot of the arguments I came across on the part of Democratic[1] commentators.
** facts of the matter
But before getting to the arguments, I want to address some simple factual matters.*** strategic voting
When the news broke that 6 Democrats(ish) had crossed the line to end the government shutdown, many were shocked as it had come seemingly out of nowhere. Until then Democratic leader Chuck Schumer had shown no shake in his resolve to continue the shutdown. When it happened prominent DNC figures like California's governor Newsom and Justice Dem AOC had both publicly shamed the senators who had cut the shutdown short.
But any review of the 6 who had voted with republicans shows the thinnest of veils hiding an organized attempt to pin the blame on a few sacrificial anodes. All the candidates were not seeking re-election in the coming midterms and so had nothing to lose.
...
*** yougov poll on how people are feeling right before the end of the shutdown
The biggest failure in the arguments is a complete lack of acknowledgement of the facts. Surveys are by no means a great metric, but none of the commentators I had listened to had bothered to review any poll work.
Here are some big points to take away from the YouGov poll:
- A majority of people approved of the government opening again
- Before the measure passed by the Senate to end the shutdown, 39% of Americans said they were personally being affected a great deal or somewhat by the shutdown — a high since we began asking at the start of the shutdown
( 39% isn't the number to pay attention to; it includes people who felt the worthlessly worded "somewhat". But the increase since the last polling is the interesting part. )
- Americans were equally split (41 for and 39 against) on holding out for an ACA extension.
- It definitely seemed like the consequences were just now starting to be felt on the average.
- but clearly not enough to be divisive yet.
- 47% of democrats disapprove of the deal and 31% approve
- It clearly wasn't a net popular move, but who's to say that it will be a thing that sticks in peoples mind. but to be clear the deal was not popular.
*** Trump's desire to dismantle the filibuster
starting all the way back in October, trump annoyed by not making any progress demanded congress get rid of the filibuster.
“It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” the president wrote on his social media site Thursday night.
* arguments
** take the foot off the pedal because there's a wall in front of us and we're gonna crash
This anxiety I feel animates most all of the arguments for having ended the shut down. I am partially sympathetic, because when it's too late we will have lost all of our good will the democrats fought so hard to claw back. But giving up without any signaling from our voters only signals to them that we're insecure.
Commentators claimed that the hurt felt by the voters was going to be blamed on the democrats. But these same commentators claimed to have whole heartedly believed that sensibly the republicans were responsible.
This reeks of insecurity to me. The polling that did exist at the time indicated that Americans were completely capable of identifying who was making the unreasonable claims. So this insincerity and infantilization I feel like really reflected an ugly picture on the commentary class.
*** SUBARGUMENT: we could of shook off the filibuster
(this argument is given by voices for keeping the shut down going)
I don't put a lot of weight behind this hypothesis, but Trumps indifference for a congress he won't have to deal with after his term is a very strong fault line. Even if Trump wasn't able to force their hand into destroying the filibuster (which I don't personally think the congressional republicans would ever let go of) it was a powerful way to antagonize their fragile caucus.
*** SUBARGUMENT: infinite torture wheel
[ imagine: picture of spiked wheel crushing poor government dependants ]
This really is more of a rhetorical argument aimed at voices who argue for having kept on with the shut down. Depicting them as privileged people uncaring for the victimized constituents pinned under the infinite torture wheel. All for their own selfish pleasure.
if we were not willing to take some hurt why did we pick this fight? I understand this could be used to justify an infinite torture wheel on the constituents, which is ugly and I don't endorse. But we did not win anything. I am just not sold that giving up and going home with nothing is better than admitting we fought an empty battle for nothing.
*** SUBARGUMENT: it was time to step off the brakes, we won
no we didnt?
Democrats got an extremely dubious oral promise from republican for a vote in the senate for a bill that would seek to extend ACA coverage. A bill that even if the republicans recognized their promise wouldn't matter. Because after it passes in the senate it goes to the house, where there is approximately a 0% chance that it will pass in the completely republican controlled house.
The fact we're relying on promises is nothing short of a humiliation ritual. My own personal dignity aside, I think this is worth keeping in mind, because another way that people articulate this skirmish as a win is as a rhetorical win. Demonstrating the disregard republicans have for their constituents.
The main win is that democrats creamed in the few off cycle elections during the shut down.
But I am skeptical of the importance of the shut down on those. Notably it was NYC, a race where Cuomo was never going to win Virginia, which while not 100% sold, there was no particular reason to think she would of lost going into it. PA which wasn't going to lose California passed prop 50 again something I don't really think was not going to pass, thought it was definitely the most contentious of this group.
I do value that the margins were high, this feeds into itself as momentum and confidence in the voters. but i also think as the pressure mounts, a perceived loss on this fight does nothing but disperse the crowd.
** the republicans were never going to give in
I am partial to this argument, but in its own way i think them not giving in is the win. we're not asking for anything unreasonable. We're asking them to have kept good on their word when Trump said he wasn't going to touch healthcare entitlements. I am also kind of conceding to the infinite torture wheel machine argument here.
“We’re not going to touch it. Now, we are going to look for fraud,” Trump said Wednesday when asked about Medicaid.
– Washington Post (February 27, 2025)
*** non linear consequences.
Instead of the consequences steadily increasing through a shut down there will be exponential increases in problems. Right before the shut down the FAA had basically collapsed in on itself, and without reliable air transit there would be a whole new degree of pains. I am basically in agreeance with this point.
* ripples?
These aren't so much arguments as observations about the surrounding meta arguments and feelings.
** democratic weak leadership?
Despite the above concern, Chuck Schumer by all evidence did a good job on keeping the democrats together. Messaging coming out of blue senators was unanimous during the shutdown. Even (embarrassingly) the same senators who officially crossed the line, just the day before were talking about the maintaining the shutdown.
While I cast doubt on Newsom and AOC not seeing through the strategic voting when they called out those sacrificial anodes. I see clueless commentators sincerely pinning blame on those senators as clear evidence of the democratic leadership working effectively.
Lastly I feel like the democrats have done a really lacking job on selling us on this being a win.
* how do i feel?
I feel like coming out empty handed is really ugly for us democrats, and some of the weak arguments coming out of the pathetic commentator class reak of an insecurity that can be smelled by any voter.
Basically all of these skirmishes are orientated for the mid terms.
I put forth my arguments on why I don't think the democrats' actions helped hold onto the momentum built up in the off year elections. But I don't think my arguments are all encompassing, and I do think there's room for debate. But crucially I feel like a lot of the arguments put out are fully sincere and lack some factual basis.
I think a big loss was that the democrats didn't remind the public that we're just holding trump to his words.
* footnotes
- There has been a lot of concern about the left wing media desire's not being shared with the actual Democrats. I share this concern, but for the purpose of clarity I will using the broadest and most inclusive definition of democratic commentators.
